The first race I saw in person was at Richmond. It is my second favorite track after Martinsville. I won’t be there this weekend but I wish that I was going to be, it is an awesome place to watch a race.
Guess who runs well at Richmond? The usual suspects. Thats right, with the exception of Clint Bowyer, who won the Fall 2012 race with MWR Richmond has been dominated by Penske, JGR, and SHR drivers. Matt Kenseth won the last Richmond race in the Fall of 2015.
So will anyone new step in and win this weekend? Lets look at that as a two part question. Will anyone from outside of the teams who have already won this year win? No! Will any new drivers inside those dominant teams win this weekend? I don’t think that will happen either. I know there has been a lot of talk about Matt Kenseth finally overcoming the “bad luck” and finding his way to victory lane. There has also been some question about when the driver with the most wins last season, Joey Logano, will win. They both may win at some point this season but it won’t be this weekend. I think what happened between them last season has had more of an effect on both of them than they would like people to think. Human performance at a high level is a fragile thing. Confidence is huge, given the presumption they have the ability, and it has obviously taken both of them some time to regain the necessary confidence.
So who will win? Denny Hamlin. Denny won that first race I went to at Richmond. He loves races at his home track and he is in the best equipment, at this point, in racing. Denny will qualify well and lead a majority of the race. Richmond lends itself to long green flag runs. It won’t be a thriller.
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